2050 is right around the corner
… and our CO2 emissions continue to rise
The Problem of Human-Induced Emissions
Human-induced (or anthropogenic) global warming refers to the process where we, humans, alter Earth's climate patterns and systems. These activities include the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), deforestation, agricultural and industrial processes, and other practices that release carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and other greenhouse gases.
A key idea we all need to understand about climate change is the concept of cumulative emissions. This term represents the total greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere over time. As these gases accumulate (with increasing emissions and time passing), they raise the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere, which amplifies the greenhouse effect. As concentration is higher the Earth’s climate system starts to retain more heat from the sun, like a blanket traps heat over your body.
As cumulative emissions rise, the Earth's climate system reacts with clear shifts like increasing temperatures, more rain, increased frequency of extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and many many more.
The AR6 Synthesis Report (2023) by IPCC confirms that average global temperatures have already reached 1.2°C and are increasing at over 0.2°C per decade. Actually, we are set to reach new global temperature records in the next five years, where we will temporarily breach 1.5°C with increasing frequency. This is driven predominantly by CO2 emissions. Other gases like methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (NOx) should also be rapidly reduced as they are more potent in trapping heat. But we need to remember that CO2 has a longer atmospheric lifetime and thus we need to act now on reducing CO2 production!
The Challenge
The Paris Agreement in 2015 set out a global framework to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. This gave us a global carbon budget, with recent calculations revealing that we only have 380 GtCO2 left before we reach 1.5°C.
Since 2015, our greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise and we are currently emitting more than 40 GtCO2 per year
This means if we continue like today we have less than 10 years left before we overshoot.
Another part of the global warming challenge, is that to stop climate change and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, we need to achieve net zero emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) by mid-century. Because fossil sources account for the overwhelming share of CO2 emissions, there are only two ways to accomplish this:
Institute and enforce a global ban on fossil fuel extraction and use
Permanently store one tonne of CO2 for every tonne generated by burning fossil fuels and producing steel and cement, such that it remains out of the atmosphere for thousands for years.
Yet, right now, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry is increasing and the global stored fraction is less than 0.1%, increasing at least 100 times too slowly to limit warming to 2°C, let alone 1.5°C.