Fossil Fuels - coal, oil, and gas - have powered global development for over two centuries.
But the continued use of fossil fuels now threatens the very stability of our planet.
As we race to limit global warming, addressing our reliance on fossil fuels is both our greatest challenge and most urgent priority.
The scale of the problem
The numbers are stark: 90% of global CO2 emissions come from fossil fuels. 75% of all greenhouse gas emissions are fossil fuel-related. And, crucially, global emissions are still rising, projected to increase further in 2024 (IEA, 2023).
This trajectory is fundamentally incompatible with the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. If current trends continue, we'll likely exceed this crucial threshold within a decade (Friedlingstein et al., 2022).
The production gap
Despite growing awareness of climate risks, many countries continue to expand fossil fuel production. The UN Environment Programme's Production Gap Report from 2023 reveals that governments plan to produce more than twice the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with the 1.5°C target. A recent Guardian investigation found that wealthy countries are leading in expanding fossil fuel production. For example, the UK and Norway are both still planning to increase fossil fuel production despite their strong commitment to climate targets. This includes the UK granted drilling licences for the controversial Rosebank oil field despite widespread opposition, and Norway continues to expand drilling, including new oil and gas exploration in the Arctic region.
These decisions reflect a dangerous disconnect between climate ambitions and fossil fuel policies. Without changing course, we will lock in emissions for decades to come, and take us well beyond what scientists have specified as a safe level of warming.
The need for regulation
Current climate policies often focus on reducing demand for fossil fuels through measures that use carbon pricing to put a price on pollution, to encourage a reduction in the use of fossil fuels. While important, these ‘demand side’ approaches neglect the supply side of the equation. There's a critical need for regulations that directly address fossil fuel extraction and production, and hold producers accountable for the emissions their products create.
A comprehensive approach that holds producers accountable
At Carbon Balance, we believe addressing the fossil fuel challenge requires a comprehensive strategy. This requires:
1. Demand-side policies: To properly price carbon, a reduction in fossil fuel use, and drive the energy transition towards renewables.
2. Supply-side policies: Implementing measures like the Carbon Takeback Obligation (CTBO) to directly regulate fossil fuel production and ensure producers take responsibility for the emissions their products create, alongside production bans and other supply side measures needed to ensure a fossil fuel phase-out.
3. Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies: Redirecting the massive financial support for fossil fuels towards clean energy technologies and just transition initiatives.
4. Strengthening climate tests: Ensuring that all new fossil fuel projects undergo rigorous climate compatibility assessments, like our proposed enhanced Climate Compatibility Checkpoint for the UK.
5. Science-aligned carbon management plans: Pushing for clear, science-based carbon management plans from both governments and companies to align any continued fossil fuel activities with climate goals.
6. Scaling carbon storage: Rapidly developing the infrastructure and technologies needed to permanently store CO2, ensuring that any continued fossil fuel use is balanced by equivalent storage.
7. Just transition planning: Developing comprehensive strategies to support workers and communities currently dependent on fossil fuel industries through the low-carbon transition.
Carbon Balance: Bridging the gaps in Climate Policy
The challenge is immense, but the costs of inaction are far greater. By addressing both the supply and demand sides of fossil fuel use, we can close the production gap and create a pathway to true carbon balance. This approach recognizes the current reality of fossil fuel dependence while actively working towards a future where their use is minimised and any remaining emissions are fully offset by permanent storage.