The window for effective climate action is rapidly narrowing…
… and yet our CO2 emissions continue to rise.
The escalating climate crisis demands immediate and decisive action.
The Problem of Human-Induced Emissions
Human activities are fundamentally altering Earth's climate systems. The burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial processes release greenhouse gases (GHGs) like carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) into the atmosphere. These emissions accumulate over time, increasing atmospheric GHG concentrations and intensifying the greenhouse effect. As GHGs build up, they trap more heat in the Earth's atmosphere, leading to a cascade of effects. These include rising global temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, melting glaciers and ice sheets, rising sea levels, and significant disruptions to ecosystems worldwide. The IPCC's AR6 Synthesis Report (2023) confirms that average global temperatures have already reached 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels and are increasing at over 0.2°C per decade. We're now on track to temporarily breach the 1.5°C threshold with increasing frequency in the coming years.
Cumulative CO2 emissions and the need for Durable Net Zero
“Halting global warming, at whatever temperature level, requires net-zero CO2 emissions and declining non-CO2 radiative forcing.”
The concept of cumulative emissions is crucial to understanding climate change. As highlighted by the University of Oxford paper in Nature, "The Meaning of Net Zero and How to Get It Right", CO2 is a long-lived greenhouse gas that remains in the atmosphere for thousands of years. This means that it is the total amount of CO2 emitted over time, rather than the rate of emissions in any given year, that determines the extent of warming.
This cumulative effect has profound implications for climate policy. As specified in the Paris Agreement, it means that we do not only need to stop producing emissions - but we must also balance any remaining emission sources with carbon sinks.
The Challenge of Meeting the Paris Agreement Goals
The 2015 Paris Agreement set a global framework to limit warming to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels. This agreement established a global carbon budget - the amount of CO2 we can emit while still having a chance to meet these temperature goals. Recent calculations from 2024 show we have only about 200 GtCO2 left before reaching 1.5°C of warming.
However, our current emissions trajectory is alarming. Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry continue to increase, with over 40 GtCO2 released annually. At this rate, we have less than a decade before we exhaust our entire carbon budget remaining for 1.5°C. And the more we overshoot, the more carbon we will need to take out of the atmosphere again.
The Path to Net Zero: a comprehensive approach
To halt climate change and meet the Paris Agreement goals, we must pursue a multi-faceted strategy that combines rapid emissions reductions and a massive reduction in fossil fuel extraction and use. This must be combined with scaled-up carbon storage for any remaining emissions to ensure that, by the time of Net Zero, 100% of remaining emissions are permanently stored.
A comprehensive approach requires:
1. Aggressive reductions in fossil fuel extraction and use through domestic and international policies.
2. Rapid scaling of renewable energy deployment and energy efficiency measures.
3. Development and deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies for hard-to-abate sectors and to address historical emissions. We are currently falling far short of what is required, with the global "stored fraction" - the proportion of CO2 emissions that are captured and stored - at less 0.1%. This rate needs to increase at least 100-fold to limit warming to 2°C, let alone 1.5°C.
Carbon Balance: Bridging the gaps in Climate Policy
At Carbon Balance, we recognise the importance of all puzzle pieces needed to achieve Net Zero, and choose to focus our time on addressing critical gaps in current climate policy to achieve durable net zero. We fight for a balanced, sustainable future that aligns with the latest climate science and principles of environmental justice.